24 August 2010

MD.gov's No Need for CHP vs. FBI's No. 5


Well, maybe that's not so good, but hey, we disarm the Maryland public and allow them to be unwilling victims!  That should serve for some good progressiveness, shouldn't it? 

Well, my fellow Marylanders, not exactly.  According to the Baltimore Business Journal's article, Baltimore's numbers are pretty bad.  Far worse than that of comparable sized cities and even bigger cities.  Baltimore's 238 murders in 2009 equates to a rate of 37.26 per 100,000 citizens. That's quite an ugly number.  Numbers one through four in this category standout as the quintessential who's who of crime.  New Orleans leads the way, with 51.72 murders per 100,000 residents, followed by Richmond, Calif., at 45.82 per 100,000, St. Louis at 40.26 per 100,000, and Detroit at 39.74 per 100,000.

Comparing Baltimore to bigger cities like NYC, DC, Philly and Boston, the results per 100,000 citizens are quite disturbing.  With rates like 5.61, 23.85, 19.52, and 8.01, respectfully, Baltimore lags behind by far numbers.  Worst still, is the fact that the city that breeds also makes two other top 20 crime lists for aggravated assault and robbery.  That is a title that is bequeathed to just a total of six cities.  Kudos Charm City!  

Now, I'm sure the critics are saying that three of those cities (Philly excluded) do not allowed for concealed or open carry of firearms, but let us examine the facts closer.  Baltimore is roughly 625,000 in population size, which is about the same as Washington, DC at approximately 600,000.  DC also restricts it's citizens right to bear arms outside their homes.  The caveat is that the District is the perfect social science experiment for testing what effect that legal guns, owned by law abiding citizens, have on crime rates.  Our nation's Capital has seen a decline in crime in every category (except arson where there was an 8% increase from 51 to 55 per year) from the numbers in 2008.  Now, some of that can be attributed to changes in the District's policing and enforcement, but no doubt the major social change that occurred was the finding that DC's private firearm ownership laws were unconstitutional.  Criminals aren't dumb and they know that there is the chance their victims will be armed.  Hence the reason the significant drops in every violent crime category.  

Looking at every city in the nation that has populations between 599,000 and 700,000 citizens, we find some interesting things looking at the murder rates.  Comparing cities in the states with concealed carry laws to those without, a significant trend is seen.  There are 10 cities falling into this population category, and of those ten, six cities are in jurisdictions with concealed carry laws.  Here are all the cities and their murder rates per 100,000 people. 

  • Denver, CO:  Pop 604,680; Rate of 5.13;  CCW Allowed / Shall Issue
  • Washington, DC:  Pop 599,657; Rate of 23.85; CCW Not allowed
  • Louisville Metro, KY:  Pop 631,260; Rate of 9.82; CCW Allowed / Shall Issue
  • Baltimore, MD:  Pop 638,755; Rate of 37.26; CCW Heavily Restricted, effectively not allowed
  • Boston, MA:  Population 624,222; Rate of 8.01;  CCW Heavily Restricted, effectively not allowed
  • Memphis, TN:  Population 667,421; Rate of 19.78; CCW Allowed / Shall Issue
  • Nashville, TN:  Population 610,176; Rate of 12.62; CCW Allowed / Shall Issue
  • El Paso, TX:  Population 618,812; Rate of 1.94; CCW Allowed / Shall Issue
  • Seattle, WA:  Population 602,531; Rate of 3.65; CCW Allowed / Shall Issue
  • Milwaukee, WI:  Population 604,673; Rate of 11.91;  CCW Not allowed, Open Carry infringed

The average of those cities that allow for CCW is a low 8.82 murders per 100,000 while those without are an astounding 20.26 murders per 100,000.  Obviously, there is some ability of the statistical evidence to skew these data, so we'll also look at the median sample for argument's sake.  For cities with CCW we get 14.95 per 100k and for those without it's 17.88 per 100k.  Keep in mind, this is only a quick and dirty example and does not take into account any time series trends or even other rates of crime for forced rape, aggravated assault, or robbery.  Our good friend John R. Lott has proven for the last decade that those categories are also dramatically affected by shall issue concealed carry laws.

Simply put, the stats don't lie.  They aren't skewed as they come directly from the FBI, a non-partial source, and the results of this quick and dirty example can be replicated by anyone who's passed 8th grade algebra.  The point of this exercise is simple, guns in the hands of law abiding citizens lower crime rates.  It's been going on since the invention came into existence, and the inversely proportional trend will continue until the end of time or the firearm.  Further, as us gun nuts know, we don't need statistics on our side to win the Constitutional argument, but these facts do help us win the culture war.

I wonder how the Owe'Malley and Dougy Gansler crowd will respond to these facts in the midst of their Second Amendment Foundation lawsuit?  I'm sure they will conveniently "dispute" them.  Perhaps someone can send these stats along to our good delegate that doesn't have a clue

Source: FBI Crime Stats.  Please note that the statistics used are the "preliminary" statistics, and are subject to some change. 

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